Sep 10, 2025

Survey: Small business owners are less confident about year-end profits Survey: Small business owners are less confident about year-end profits Business owners are heading into the last quarter of 2025 — often the most important time of year for retail, e-commerce, restaurants and hospitality — with less confidence in profit growth expectations than this time last year, according to a recent NEXT Insurance survey. This year, just under half of business owners (49%) expect their profits to increase, down from 55% in 2024. That six‑point drop may reflect that small business owners continue to grapple with rising uncertainty across demand, inflation, policy and costs. In August, NEXT surveyed 1,500 business owners about their outlook and planning for the end of the year. NEXT At the same time, business owners not expecting any change in profits jumped from 27% to 35%. This swing could suggest that many owners are concerned about growth. Slightly fewer business owners expect profit shortfalls at year’s end compared to 2024 (16% vs.18% last year). Business owners could be watching the economy closely before they get too optimistic about big-numbers expansion and growth. Business investment spending is flat across the board More business owners say they have extra income to reinvest compared to 2024. However, there were only nominal changes in the five key investment areas to track: Customer acquisition NEXT The most significant change reported by business owners is a 3% increase in hiring and retraining employees. Business owners plan to hire more workers While the percentage of business owners who said they were hiring in 2024 and 2025 remains flat, the number of employees businesses plan to hire has increased as we approach the holiday sales quarter. Thirteen percent of business owners who plan to hire said they would hire 10 or more new workers, and 12% said they would hire six to 10 new employees. Both numbers are up 3% from last year. Those that said they were bringing in just one to five new employees have dropped 5%. NEXT Of course, not every employer is looking to fill their ranks. Some respondents said they don’t need to hire (26%) or can’t afford to (18%), both roughly in sync with 2024 numbers. NEXT It’s getting easier to hire and find new employees Only 8% of owners said they are not hiring in the final months of this year because it’s too hard to find employees. This is a significant drop from 15% of employers who reported it was too hard to find talent last year at this time. First half of 2025 profits remained steady The first half of 2025 brought a slightly better mix of results as compared to last year. The number of businesses that exceeded profit expectations ticked up slightly from 22% compared to 20% last year. The largest group of respondents said profits met expectations at 42%. Fewer business owners reported worse-than-expected profits (36% in 2025 vs. 38% in 2024). NEXT These findings line up with broader national trends. In 2024, the Federal Reserve found just 46% of small businesses turned a profit , while 35% operated at a loss, and more reported revenue declines (41%) than gains (38%) — the first time that’s happened since 2021. Though profits aren’t yet dropping, slowing demand, rising expenses and economic uncertainty could keep business owners holding steady.