Moody's Analytics

Sep 8, 2025

Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi highlighted that the US job market relies heavily on the healthcare and hospitality sectors, which generated 600,000 (6 lakhs) new jobs this year. Without these sectors, overall job growth would stagnate, reflecting a possible recession, with less than half of the industries contributing to payroll increases, he noted In a post on the social media platform X, Zandi said, “What's perhaps most disconcerting about the flagging job market is how dependent it is on healthcare and hospitality for what little job growth is occurring. Since the beginning of the year, the economy has created a paltry 600k jobs, but without the job growth in these industries, there would be zero job growth.” “Indeed, fewer than half of the industries in the Bureau of Labour Statistics' payroll employment survey have added to payrolls over the past 6 months,” he noted. Further citing data with his post, Zandi claimed, “this only happens when the economy is in recession .” What's perhaps most disconcerting about the flagging job market is how dependent it is on healthcare and hospitality for what little job growth is occurring. Since the beginning of the year, the economy has created a paltry 600k jobs, but without the job growth in these… pic.twitter.com/lmheiipugG — Mark Zandi (@Markzandi) September 7, 2025 Is job market facing recession? Zandi's recent post comes after his claims that the job market is facing a recession, with payroll employment declining in June and only marginal increases in July and August. Manufacturing , mining, and construction are losing jobs, while healthcare and hospitality are adding. GDP and incomes are still growing, but concerns remain about future job losses. In another post on X, Zandi wrote, “It's a jobs recession. Payroll employment declined in June, and while it was up in July and August, the increases were on the margin and seem likely to be revised away. The goods side of the economy, including manufacturing, mining, and construction, is losing a significant number of jobs, as is the federal government.” He added, “Only healthcare and hospitality are adding to payrolls. It's not a full-blown recession, as GDP, incomes, and profits are still slowly growing. But for how much longer, if the economy continues losing jobs?” US jobs data Zandi's latest remarks come after the US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) released job data on Friday, 5 September 2025. The data showed that the US economy recorded a rise in unemployment rates as job growth declined sharply. According to the data, the unemployment rate in the US economy jumped to 4.3% in August, compared to their 4.2% level in July 2025, while the US job growth was at 22,000 in August, a major fall compared to their 79,000 level in July 2025.