Aug 18, 2025

Today, I look at the economy and what’s ahead. Plus: Meat is back on the menu at one of New York City’s premier restaurants. ➡️ The Latest The three sisters of sidelined Market Basket chief executive Arthur T. Demoulas have removed his sole remaining ally from the board as the two factions spar over the future of the supermarket chain. Dr. Anne Klibanski, CEO of Mass General Brigham, was paid $8.4 million in 2023, the highest total compensation reported by a Massachusetts hospital leader in at least the past decade. In Dedham, a company is putting together plans for a large-scale development that could eventually grow to more than twice the size of the town’s Legacy Place shopping center. 😬 High anxiety Summertime , and the livin’ is uneasy. The economy isn’t booming — but neither is it falling apart. Uncertainty about tariffs and their impact on inflation. About employment and whether July’s slowdown in hiring — combined with sharp downward revisions to the numbers for May and June — are a sign of things to come. About the effects of tight immigration restrictions and mass deportations on the labor market. About the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates. Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said the economy is being held back as business leaders struggle to cope with the many unknowns. “This is deadweight loss,” she said during a panel discussion earlier this month sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. Advertisement Boston Fed President Susan Collins, speaking on the same panel, called it an “uncertainty tax.” It’s a rare moment as President Trump’s unconventional policies collide with conventional economic wisdom. President Trump announced tariff rates — later revised — on April 2.Mark Schiefelbein/Associated Press ⏪ Recap Trump has moved quickly to put his stamp on the economy. In just 211 days, his administration has: Imposed steep import taxes. “It is too early to discern much effect on the economy,” The Economist magazine concludes. But, it added that “strains are starting to show: retail sales are weakening, housing starts have dropped to their lowest since mid-2020 and an immigration crackdown is tightening labor supply.” Advertisement Other indicators also point to economic crosswinds. The economy expanded by 3 percent from April through June. That was a rebound from a 0.5 percent decline in the previous three months caused — in the arcane math of gross domestic product — by a surge in imports as companies stocked up on goods before tariffs kicked in. Tariffs are starting to push up inflation, but the increase hasn’t been as big as economists anticipated. The core Consumer Price Index, which excludes often volatile food and energy costs, rose 3.1 percent in June from a year earlier — the fastest pace since February. Import-dependent companies, including Ford and John Deere, are reporting big losses tied to tariffs. Employers added just 73,000 jobs in July, falling well short of forecasts, and the totals for the previous two months were revised lower. After the revisions, payrolls increased by a paltry monthly average of 35,000 from May through July, compared with 126,000 in the prior three months. Consumer confidence has tumbled since Trump took office, according to the University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment. 👉 Why it matters Taken together, the data underscore the growing risk of stagflation — the dreaded combination of slowing growth, rising unemployment, and escalating prices. “We have gotten ourselves from an economy that was rip-roaring — just let it go, inflation coming down, the strongest economic recovery out of the pandemic — to an S-word adjacent economy by a set of policy choices that have been made that didn’t have to be made this way,” Natasha Sarin, cofounder of the Budget Lab at Yale, said in an interview on “The Ezra Klein Show” released Saturday. Advertisement The prospect of stagflation puts the Fed in a bind. When the job market weakens, its typical move is to lower interest rates to make it easier for businesses to borrow and expand. But when prices climb too quickly, the central bank boosts rates to cool off inflation. “The Fed’s under a tremendous amount of pressure,” Scott DiMaggio of investment firm AllianceBernstein told Bloomberg . 🔮 What’s ahead Despite the uncertainty, US stocks are trading near record highs, suggesting that investors expect things to work out for now. After a sharp April sell-off triggered by Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index rallied. The index is up 9.7 percent for the year. Investors are betting that Fed officials will begin easing rates when they next meet on Sept. 16-17. That, combined with resilient corporate earnings and strong enthusiasm — some would call it mania — about the potential for artificial intelligence, has outweighed concerns about a broader slowdown. 🤔 Final thought Economic uncertainty is high thanks to Trump’s aggressive policies, which have fueled both optimism and anxiety. Growth is slowing and prices are edging higher. There’s a whiff of stagflation in the air, leaving the Federal Reserve with no easy path forward. AI enthusiasm is powering a surge in capital investment. But if the bubble bursts, a rerun of the dot-com market collapse and recession could follow. The outcome, regardless of what anyone says, is still very much in play. 🎙️ On the Record “We’ve been here almost 130 years and our goal is to be here for the long run.” — Signature Healthcare vice president Beth MacNeill, after the parent company of Brockton Hospital said it would cut 80 jobs and end its bariatric surgery and cardiac rehabilitation service lines due to financial pressures. Advertisement 🏗️ Housing & Development Mini-city : A developer is pitching Cambridge officials on a project near the Alewife MBTA station that would include 2,000 housing units, 2.5 million square feet of office and lab space, 71,000 square feet of retail space, and 14 acres of public open space and yards. Rooms with a view : Jon Cronin, who lost control of the St. Regis Residences in the Seaport to his lender, has listed his penthouse there for $49.5 million — the most expensive home on the market in Massachusetts. 🔬 Biotech MA—HA! : Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s war on messenger RNA is chilling investment in the groundbreaking vaccine technology. 📺 Media Public media pain : PBS is cutting its current budget by 21 percent to deal with Congress’s recent decision to eliminate roughly $500 million in federal funding from public TV and radio. 🌿 Cannabis Not cool, man : A state audit of the agency that regulates the Massachusetts marijuana industry found widespread mismanagement, violations of state regulations, and potential improprieties. 💲 IPOs Takeoff : Autonomous aviation startup Merlin Labs expects to go public next year by merging with a special purpose acquisition company in a deal that will initially value the Boston-based company at $800 million. 🔢 By the Numbers 13 — The number of residential properties in Bourne’s Round Hill neighborhood that the state plans to take by eminent domain to build the Sagamore Bridge replacement. Three commercial properties will also be taken. Advertisement Chief Daniel Humm in 2017. Benjamin Norman/New York Times When Eleven Madison Park in New York adopted an all-vegan menu in 2021 , it stood alone among the 132 restaurants worldwide with three Michelin stars. Chef Daniel Humm made the shift when he reopened after the pandemic, citing the environmental impact of meat and a desire to reimagine fine dining around plant-based cooking. “The way we have sourced our food, the way we’re consuming our food, the way we eat meat, it is not sustainable,” he told “The How I Built This” podcast at the time. Last week, the chef said he was bringing some meat back — a decision made for financial reasons and as an act of hospitality. “I very much believed in the all-in approach, but I didn’t realize that we would exclude people,” he told The New York Times . “I have some anxiety that people are going to say, ‘Oh, he’s a hypocrite,’ but I know that the best way to continue to champion plant-based cooking is to let everyone participate around the table.” The new menu, debuting on Oct. 14, will be mostly vegan but include a few meat and seafood options. The price will remain at $365 for seven to nine courses, and diners can still choose an all-vegan meal. “When people come in and maybe they had one fish or a lobster or the duck but they also had 80 percent vegetable dishes,” Humm said, “they might even like the vegetable dishes more.” 🙏 Thanks for reading. Trendlines will be back on Thursday. Advertisement Larry Edelman can be reached at larry.edelman@globe.com . Follow Us